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This Years Budget Predictions


At 12.30 on the 22 March Gordon Brown will deliver his tenth and what could well be his final budget.

As ever with the present regime, there is likely to be significant further anti-avoidance measures aimed at preventing specific tax planning initiatives.

However as this could well be Gordon Brown’s last budget before he moves next door to number 10, and he may take the opportunity to offer up a few 'sweeteners'. If any area is to be given such treatment we see Inheritance tax as the key vote winning area without affecting tax revenues too much. Most likely on this front is a consultation exercise (most likely), although we wouldn’t rule out a large increase in the Nil Rate Band or by exempting the main residence from IHT altogether – a real vote winner.

Pre-guessing the budget always involves the scientific art of crystal ball gazing but here’s a few of the stronger contenders:

  • UK Real Estate Investment Trusts
    REITS are likely to be legislated for in the Finance Bill, and may well be up and running by the end of the calendar year.

  • Changes to National Insurance Contributions
    Currently all employees pay National Insurance through the PAYE system of 11% on earnings between the nil-rate band of £408 per month and the upper limit of £2,730 a month, with earnings above £2,730 per month being subject to a residual 1% charge. The Chancellor could increase the 1% charge applicable above the upper limit to 2%.
     
  • Planning Gain Supplement
    A new tax, this will be levied on the increase in property values consequent upon grant of full planning permission. The tax is in the very early stages of design, but much more should be known about the government's plans after the budget.

  • Business Property Renovation Allowance
    This very generous capital allowance will help businesses renovate property in disadvantaged areas. The relief was included in last year’s Finance Act, but is awaiting approval from the EU before it can commence.

  • Arctic Systems
    Despite HMRC’s having won leave to appeal to the House of Lords on this long-running husband and wife company dispute, legislation may well be being introduced on this issue in the  budget. Who’s to say this won’t also be the budget where we finally see national insurance introduced on small company dividends.

  • Taper relief
    It is now eight years since taper relief was introduced and there is speculation that rules will be introduced to align the treatment of business and non-business assets.

  • Principal Private Residence
    Given the profits now arising on the sale of properties, it would not be a surprise to see measures in this year’s budget to tighten the rules surrounding principal private residence relief.

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